Sunday, April 10, 2011

Overnight the forecast models changed dramatically. The storm prediction center has downgraded out area from "moderate" to "slight" chance of severe weather. While it still appears we may have a severe threat later tonight, and a tornado threat still will exist, the chances have drastically been reduced.

Temps will be in the mid to upper 80s (near 90) with breezy southwest winds which can create red flag conditions (Fire). Mostly sunny for the most part of the day.

Stay tuned throughout the day, if any watches and or warnings are posted, i will make sure to post them.

See outlook below (or click on the link).

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH.

HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER.

AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE:
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

A HEIGHTENED GRASS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A ROCKFORD TO PERU LINE
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

DISCUSSION:

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. INITIALLY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER COOLING
ALOFT THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL FORM IN A LINE AS OPPOSED TO INDIVIDUAL
SUPERCELLS. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE...IT WOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING BELOW 40 WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED GRASS FIRE
DANGER.

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